Has India Overtaken China in Demographic Terms?


A demographic researcher from the University of Wisconsin-Madison claims that China may no longer be the world’s most populous nation-state, after the government grossly overestimated birth rates in recent years

Yi Fuxian, a demographic researcher from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said that the Chinese government may have overstated the number of births during the quarter-century period from 1990 to 2016 by nearly 90 million.

If Yi’s figures are accurate, then China’s population as of the end of 2016 was 1.29 billion as compared to the official government estimate of 1.38 billion, and well below Indian figure of 1.33 billion.

According to Yi the concealing of a Chinese demographic slump by over-optimistic government projections is ongoing, with his estimate of China’s real fertility rate in 2015 at 1.5, as compared to the official figure of 1.5.

Demographic change is one of the biggest problems confronting the Chinese economy, with the country’s working age population entering decline ever since 2012.