Domestic analysts see credit extension for July posting a robust reading in the wake of looser monetary policy from Beijing according to a report from the state-owned Securities Daily.
Lu Zhengwei (鲁政委), chief economist for Industrial Bank Co., said he expects new renminbi lending for July to reach 1.1 trillion yuan, for an increase of 274.5 billion yuan compared to the same period last year.
Total social financing is likely to be lower than new renminbi lending with Lu forecasting a July reading of 950 billion yuan due to the impact of new wealth management rules that are prompting financial institutions to adopt a “wait and see” attitude.
Liao Zhiming (廖志明), chief banking sector analyst for Tianfeng Securities, expects July lending to reach 1.2 trillion year, with total social financing of 1.05 trillion yuan.
“Given the seasonal tendency for new loans to fall in July, new lending of 1.2 trillion yuan is very reasonable, and shows that loosened credit policy is starting to show results,” said Liao.
According to Liao endogenous downward pressure on the Chinese economy as well as protracted trade tensions with the United States have prompted a shift towards looser monetary policy, leading to a rise in lending.
Lian Ping (连平), chief economist for Bank of Communications, said that the Chinese central bank’s shift to “rationally ample” liquidity means that lending by banking sector financial institutions is likely to be more active than it was in the past.
This will be especially the case for those banks that obtain targeted liquidity support from the People’s Bank of China, which will be a major factor impacting the pace of credit growth over the next several months.
Lian sees new loans in July posting a sizeable YoY rise to reach roughly 1.2 trillion yuan, and YoY M2 growth of around 8.3%.
