2019 GDP Growth to Drop Beneath 6.5%: Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

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A new blue paper from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) forecasts a decline in China’s GDP growth in 2019.

The “Economic Blue Paper Summer Edition: Chinese Economic Growth Report (2017 – 2018)” (经济蓝皮书夏季号:中国经济增长报告(2017-2018)) was released by CASS on 19 September in Beijing.

The report forecasts GDP growth of under 6.5% in 2019, as China” shifts from high-speed to high-quality growth.”

According to the blue paper the boost given to the Chinese economy by exports in the first half of 2018 will not continue, and economic growth will be primarily dependent upon domestic demand.

CASS said that the shift from high-speed to high-quality growth in China will necessitate simultaneous increases in both labour productivity and total factor productivity, which will in turn involve a move away from dependence upon factor inputs, as well as the launch of an endogenous growth phase.

According to the report China’s TFP reached 20.83% for 2013 – 2017, indicating that supply-side structural reforms have achieved some initial success.

Consumer prices will hold steady next year, with CASS forecasting full-year inflation of under 2%.

CASS previously forecast GDP growth of 6.7% for 2018, while Beijing set a growth target of 6.5% at the start of the year.

China’s GDP saw 6.8% growth in the first half of 2018, after posting an official full year growth figure of 6.9% for 2017.

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