A new survey conducted by one of China’s leading think tanks found that respondents expect the Chinese economy to stage a substantial recovery from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic by the third quarter of 2020.
Economists surveyed by China Economist – a periodical published by the Chinese Academy of Social Services (CASS) see China’s economy posting growth of 5.2% in the third quarter, as external trade conditions continue to improve.
41.5% of economists surveyed forecast third quarter growth of 6.0%, while 39.6% foresee growth of between 3.5% and 5.5%, and none expect negative growth.
28.3% of economists surveyed expect economic growth in the third quarter to remain level with the figure for the same period last year, while 49.1% forecast a deceleration.
The China Economist‘s Economic Sentiment Index (经济景气指数) for the third quarter is 68, for a rise of 51 points compared to the preceding quarter, and the highest level since the second quarter of 2018.
22.6% of survey participants expect third quarter exports to post a YoY rise, while 58.5% foresee a decline.
The Foreign Trade Sentiment Index is 59, for a rise of 35 points compared to the preceding quarter, and a higher reading than the figures for the first and second quarters of 2019.