Chinese Economists Upbeat about COVID-19 Recovery in Q3 2020: CASS Survey


A new survey conducted by one of China’s leading think tanks found that respondents expect the Chinese economy to stage a substantial recovery from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic by the third quarter of 2020.

Economists surveyed by China Economist – a periodical published by the Chinese Academy of Social Services (CASS) see China’s economy posting growth of 5.2% in the third quarter, as external trade conditions continue to improve.

41.5% of economists surveyed forecast third quarter growth of 6.0%, while 39.6% foresee growth of between 3.5% and 5.5%, and none expect negative growth.

28.3% of economists surveyed expect economic growth in the third quarter to remain level with the figure for the same period last year, while 49.1% forecast a deceleration.

The China Economist‘s Economic Sentiment Index (经济景气指数) for the third quarter is 68, for a rise of 51 points compared to the preceding quarter, and the highest level since the second quarter of 2018.

22.6% of survey participants expect third quarter exports to post a YoY rise, while 58.5% foresee a decline.

The Foreign Trade Sentiment Index is 59, for a rise of 35 points compared to the preceding quarter, and a higher reading than the figures for the first and second quarters of 2019.

Related stories

Digital Economy Makes 67.7% Contribution to Chinese GDP Growth

Xi Jinping Calls for Greater Guidance of Private Economy by Chinese Communist Party

World Economy Needs China Post-COVID-19, Urban Employment to Grow by 9M in 2020: Li Keqiang