Bank of Communications (BOCOM) analysts forecast robust growth in Chinese consumption in 2021 in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The “Recovery Split – 2021 Macro-economic and Market Outlook” (复苏分化——2021年宏观经济及市场展望) report released by BOCOM expects Chinese GDP growth to reach around 9% in 2021, as the economy bounces back from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Report expects first quarter growth in 2021 to hit a peak of around 15% given the low base for the same period in 2020, before gradually easing to normal levels by the final quarter of next year.
BOCOM also forecasts that consumption will drive over 60% of Chinese economic growth in 2021, while investment’s role will see a corresponding decline.
The report expects 2021 consumption growth to rise to around 13% for a robust recovery in the wake of the shock created by the COVID-19 pandemic earlier in the year, while fixed asset investment is expected to grow 8%.