Japanese Economists Expect China to Surpass US in National GDP Before End of the Decade


A leading Japanese think tank expects China’s economy to exceed that of the US prior to the end of the 2020’s, with the COVID-19 pandemic playing a key role in accelerating the process of catch-up.

The Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) forecasts that the Chinese economy will surpass America’s in size by either 2028 or 2029.

In its “Asia in the Coronavirus Disaster” report released last Thursday, JCER said China’s effectiveness in suppressing the spread of COVID-19 had accelerated its ability to match the US in terms of economic output.

“Due to the impact of the novel coronavirus, many countries are expected to suffer deeply negative growth rates for 2020,” said the Report. “The differences seen now will make a considerable difference to countries’ economic scale 15 years from now.”

According to the Report only China, Vietnam and Taiwan will post YoY economic growth in 2020, with Hong Kong, Thailand, Canada, Malaysia and Singapore all set to see GDP contractions of over 8%, and India a plunge of over 10%.

JCER forecasts that key economic variables will return to normal in four to five years time, as long as the COVID-19 pandemic proves to be a transient event.