14 Listed Chinese Real Estate Firms Have One Year Probability of Default above 20%: S&P


At least 14 real estate firms listed in Hong Kong and mainland China have a one-year probability of default in excess of 20% as of the end of the first half of 2021, according to a report from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

These 14 Chinese companies whose primary business is either real estate development or diversified real estate activities include:

Company Market capitalisation ($M)1 year PD (%)
Tianjin Songjiang Co., Ltd.404.554.482
China Mining International Ltd. 5.533.422
China Infrastructure Investment Ltd. 25.230.870
Xinming China Holdings Ltd. 8.929.688
Carnival Group International Holdings Ltd. 17.828.474
Jinan High-tech Development Co., Ltd. 418.328.456
Lvjing Holding Co., Ltd. 181.427.311
HNA Innovation Co., Ltd. 275.126.717
Tianjin Realty Development (Group) Co., Ltd. 331.924.202
Zhongtian International Ltd. 13.222.881
Beijing Zodi Investment Co., Ltd. 202.022.105
Shenyang Public Utility Holdings Co., Ltd. 27.821.596
Shahe Industrial Co., Ltd. 221.521.525
Xiwang Property Holdings Co., Ltd. 21.021.235

The median one-year probability of default for the Chinese real estate sector is currently 0.8%.

Analysts expect Chinese banks to exercise greater caution in the extension of credit to real estate developers in the wake of the Evergrande Group debt debacle, as well a due to weaker profitability in general.

Lending to Chinese developers accounted for 7% of total lending by the Chinese banking system as of 30 September, according to figures from Société Générale.