CPI Expected to Rise Around 2.5% in Second Quarter


Chinese analysts expect modest gains in domestic prices to continue in the second quarter of 2018.

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicate that CPI posted a year-on-year rise of 2.1% in the first quarter, maintaining steady growth seen in 2017.

January, February and March saw YoY gains of 1.5%, 2.9% and 2.1% respectively, with fluctuations primarily due to shifts in food prices.

February saw a spike in demand due to the Chinese New Year vacation, alongside impeded supply due to adverse weather conditions around China, leading to an on-month rise in food prices of 4.4%.

Demand eased and the weather warmed up in March, resulting in a price decline of 4.2%.

Zhejiang Securities researchers Sun Fu (孙付) said to Securities Journal that he expects year-on-year CPI growth to fluctuate around 2.5% during the period from April to June.

Pork prices are likely to remain weak as supply markedly outstrips demand in the wake of the Chinese New Year, while crude oil prices will not see any pronounced gains during the period.

An official from NBS said that prices will see some fluctuations as a result of changes in the external economic environment as well as shifts in domestic supply and demand relations, but remain essentially stable in the near-term.